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Aston Villa vs Arsenal

Mon 31 Aug 2026, 19:00 UTC · Round 2 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Aston Villa win: 22.4%

Draw: 23.6%

Arsenal win: 54.0%

Predicted: Arsenal

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 65.9%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 68.1%

Corners

Expected total corners: 10.07

More corners: Arsenal (28.9% home / 71.1% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Arsenal

Yes

Probability Arsenal wins or draws: 82.7%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Arsenal Clearest lean of the available outcomes (54% vs next-best 24%). (54.0% model probability) Medium

Both Teams to Score Yes (66.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Over 2.5 (68.0% model probability) High

Corners Arsenal (more corners) (71.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Arsenal win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (83.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.